The Impact of American Support for the Kurds in Turkey on the Strategic Relations between the Two Countries: A Quantitative Study

Ayman M. Hayajneh

doi:10.35516/Hum.2025.8585

Authors

Ayman M. Hayajneh Department of Political and International Studies, Faculty of Arts, Yarmouk University, Irbid, Jordan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8171-1124

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/Hum.2025.8585

Keywords:

American support, Kurds, multivariate regression analysis, U.S.-Turkey relations, international relations

Abstract

Objectives: This study explored the multifaceted impacts of American support for the Kurds in Turkey, manifested in political, economic, and military dimensions, on U.S.-Turkey relations during the period from 2011 to 2021.

Methods: This study adopted a quantitative methodology and utilized multivariate regression analysis to evaluate the influence of American political (PS), economic (ES), and military support (MS) for the Kurds in Turkey on multiple facets of U.S.-Turkey relationships.

Results: The results demonstrated that an increase in (PS, ES, and MS) significantly diminished Political Alignment (PA) between the U.S. and Turkey, highlighting the deleterious effects of these forms of support on political relations. Conversely, an elevation in PS, ES, and MS was found to have a favourable effect on the Trade Volume (TV) between these two countries, implying a strengthened economic interaction despite political discordance. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that all three forms of American support for the Kurds inversely impacted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the U.S. to Turkey, signifying the potential economic risks associated with this support. However, American PS, ES, and MS simultaneously showed a significant positive influence on the amount of Foreign Aid (FA) provided by the U.S. to Turkey, as well as on the level of Military Cooperation (MC) between the two nations.

Conclusion: The findings illuminate the multifaceted and sometimes contradictory consequences of American support for the Kurds on U.S.-Turkey relations, showcasing the complex interplay of geopolitics during the studied period.

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