The Role of External Actors in Shaping Political Stability in Countries of Consociational Democracy: The Case of Iraq

Abstract

Objectives: The study examines the impact of domestic actors in consociational countries on external actors’ role in shaping stability in these countries, taking Iraq as a case study. This role is typically studied from a top-down perspective, neglecting domestic actors' vital impact in shaping that role and stability in return.

Methods: The study employs a qualitative approach, interviewing top Iraqi decision-makers, senior diplomats, and specialised academics. Secondary sources were also used to integrate diverse perspectives for a deeper understanding of this complex trajectory.

Results: Although external actors, often powerful, play a greater role in shaping stability in typically weak consociational states, domestic actors significantly impact this role by designing either cooperative or confrontational platforms for external actors to operate in, fundamentally shaping stability there.

Conclusions: The consociational democracy theory has a structural flaw that encourages domestic actors to create a confrontational platform for external actors by freezing societal conflict and transferring it to the political arena through politicising sub-identities rather than resolving it. Thus, conflict becomes an attractive tool for elites to mobilise and garner societal and political support, leading to conflicting domestic politics that extend to foreign policy, reducing it to a mere instrument for appealing to contending communal groups, threatening stability, regardless of the effectiveness of the theory’s domestic stabilisation mechanisms. Moreover, efforts to establish a cooperative platform usually arise only during crises, driven by survival needs, rendering the resulting stability temporary. Therefore, developing mechanisms to separate foreign policy from conflicting domestic politics is essential for sustainable stability.