دور القوى الخارجية في رسم مسار الاستقرار السياسي للدول ذات الديمقراطية التوافقية: العراق أُنموذجاً
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35516/Hum.2026.9819الكلمات المفتاحية:
التوافقيَّة، الديمقراطيَّة، الهُوِيَّة، العراق، الاستقرار السياسي، الطائفيَّة.الملخص
الأهداف: تهدف الدراسة إلى بيان تأثير القوى الداخلية في الدول التوافقية على دور القوى الخارجية في تشكيل الاستقرار فيها، متخذةً العراق أنموذجًا للتحليل. غالبا ما يُدرس هذا الدور من منظور فوقي، دون إيلاء اهتمام كافٍ لتأثير القوى الداخلية الجوهري بصيرورة هذا الدور، وانعكاس ذلك على استقرار تلك الدول.
المنهجية: اعتمدت الدراسة المنهج النوعي عبر إجراء مقابلات مع كبار صناع القرار والدبلوماسيين العراقيين، وأكاديميين متخصصين، إلى جانب الاستعانة بمصادر ثانوية؛ وذلك لتحقيق فهم معمّق لهذه الديناميكيات المعقدة.
النتائج: على الرغم من أن القوى الخارجية، التي غالبا ما تكون قوية، تؤدي دورًا محوريًّا يفوق دور القوى الداخلية بتشكيل مسار الاستقرار بالدول التوافقية التي عادة ما تكون ضعيفة، فإنَّ للقوى الداخلية دورًا حاسمًا في تحديد طبيعة هذا التأثير. فعبرَ تبني إطار تعاوني أو تصادمي ترسم القوى الداخلية الفضاء الذي تتفاعل ضمنه القوى الخارجية؛ مما يؤثِّر جوهريًّا في الاستقرار.
الخلاصة: تعاني نظرية الديمقراطية التوافقية من ثغرة هيكلية تتمثل في تشجيع القوى الداخلية على تشكيل إطار تصادمي للقوى الخارجية، وذلك بتجميد الصراع المجتمعي ونقله إلى الساحة السياسية عبر تسييس الهُوِيّات الفرعية بدلًا من معالجته؛ حيث يكون ذلك الصراع أداة جذابة للنخب السياسية للتعبئة واستقطاب الدعم المجتمعي والسياسي؛ مما يخلق سياسات محلية متصارعة، وهذا يمتد للسياسة الخارجية باختزالها إلى وسيلة لاستمالة المكونات المجتمعية المتصارعة، مهدِّدًا الاستقرار الداخلي بغض النظر عن مدى فاعلية اليات الاستقرار المحلية للنظرية. لا تنشأ الجهود الرامية إلى بناء إطار تعاوني مع القوى الخارجية عادةً إلّا في أثناء الأزمات، مدفوعةً بحاجات البقاء؛ مما يجعل الاستقرار الناتج مؤقَّتًا؛ لذا من الضروري إجراء دراسات لتطوير آليات تفصل السياسة الخارجية عن السياسات المحلية المتصارعة لضمان استقرار مستدام.
التنزيلات
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