Reshaping the Middle East: Exploring the New Balance of Power and the Decline of U.S. Influence

Naser M. Tahboub; Muhammad Ihsan Sandjaya

doi:10.35516/Hum.2025.7836

Authors

Naser M. Tahboub Department of International Relations, Prince Al Hussein Bin Abdullah II School of International Studies, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6243-7078
Muhammad Ihsan Sandjaya Senior Researcher, Amman, Jordan https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6534-8395

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/Hum.2025.7836

Keywords:

Balance of Power, Middle East, Islamic World, Regional Power.

Abstract

Objectives: This research investigates the new balance of power in the Middle East, focusing on the regional powers and the perceived decline of U.S. influence in the region. The study explores how regional powers are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

Methods: The study combines qualitative data, case studies, and quantitative analysis of military expenditures and diplomatic interactions. Grounded in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, the research examines how domestic political factors and systemic constraints influence the foreign policy decisions of regional players.

Results: The findings suggest that the recent developments following Israel's declaration of war on Hamas, which led to regional escalation, are regrettable after a series of regional de-escalation efforts. At the same time, maintaining a strong balance of power is essential for regional players and the blocs within the region.

Conclusions: The division of the Middle East into two regional blocs, namely the status quo and the revisionist, will remain increasingly intact amid the current escalation, despite the significant progress in the political normalization process. Therefore, the balance of power maintained by the U.S. in the region remains entrenched and superior, indicating that the U.S.'s influence is unlikely to face significant challenges from China or Russia this year or in the near future.

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