التغيرات الزمانية-المكانية في نمو سُكان المدينة المنورة وإسقاط عددهم في المُستقبل باستخدام التقنيات الحديثة

Mohamed Ahmed Aly Hassanien

doi:10.35516/hum.v52i6.7879

Authors

Mohamed Ahmed Aly Hassanien Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt Department of Social Sciences, College of Arts and Humanities, Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah, Saudi Arabia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1775-336X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v52i6.7879

Keywords:

Population Growth, Population Projection, Natural Increase, Migration, Central Business District, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah

Abstract

Objectives: The demographic landscape of Al-Madinah has changed significantly in recent decades, with notable variations in population growth and distribution. This study aims to analyze these changes and project future population trends using modern techniques.

Methods: The study employed regional and historical methodologies to analyze the development and growth of the population in Al-Madinah. It used a quantitative approach to calculate population growth rates and project future numbers using the Spectrum 6.36 program. Additionally, it utilized cartographic methods to create thematic maps of population development and growth using the ArcGIS 10.2 program.

Results: The study revealed that Al-Madinah’s population fluctuated before 1962; in 2010, it grew to over one million, and by 2022, it topped 1.4 million. Al-Madinah’s population growth rate fell from 8% annually in the 1970s to 2.3% during 2010-2022. There were tempo-spatial variations in population growth rates among Al-Madinah’s districts during the (2004-2010) and (2010-2022) periods; many districts outside the central area, particularly the southern, southeastern, and western ones, experienced population growth rates of 8% or higher during the two periods; however, most central area districts saw population growth rates of -8% or lower during the latter period. The study suggested that Al-Madinah’s population would be about 1.6 and 1.8 million people by 2032 and 2042, respectively.

Conclusions: The study found that negative population growth rates in the center of Al-Madinah and positive rates in the outskirts indicate a shift of residents, especially Saudis, from the city center to its peripheries, reflecting the government's efforts to reduce congestion in central areas.

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