Analysis of the Trends of Change in Temperature and Precipitation and their Impact on Water in Anbar Governorate (1980-2023)

Kasim Ahmed Ramel; Yassin Hameed AL Mehemdi; Ammar Y. Awad

doi:10.35516/hum.v51i5.10019

Authors

Kasim Ahmed Ramel Dept. of Geography, College of Arts, University of Anbar, Ramady, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9958-7416
Yassin Hameed AL Mehemdi Dept. of Geography, College of Arts, University of Anbar, Ramady, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5770-3968
Ammar Y. Awad Dept. of Geography, College of Education for Humanities, University of Anbar, Ramady, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3350-1146

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v51i5.10019

Keywords:

Temperature Change, Hydrological Drought, Climate Change, Mann Kendall Test.

Abstract

Objectives: The research aims to study the changes in temperature and rainfall from 1980 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test model to analyze trends in temperature and rainfall changes in Al-Anbar Governorate. This model helps to detect and assess the presence of statistically significant trends in time series data by comparing the relative rankings of values over time.

Method: The study relied on both an inductive-analytical approach and a deductive approach based on scientific methods to select information and data, ensuring a comprehensive examination by combining climatic elements and hydrological characteristics. Quantitative and statistical methods were applied to achieve the research objectives.

Results: The study found that average temperatures in Al-Anbar have significantly increased. Al-Qaim station recorded the lowest change at 0.924°C for all study years and 0.21°C per decade, while Rutba station recorded the highest at 1.848°C and 0.42°C per decade. For rainfall, Haditha station saw the lowest decrease at -47.828 mm, while Al-Qaim station experienced the largest reduction at -58.036 mm. This shift has led to a 40% decline in rainfall and a growing water deficit in the Euphrates River, projected to reach 2403.8 million cubic meters by 2040.

Conclusion: The research concluded that it is essential to intensify local and international efforts to mitigate the risks of global warming and its severe consequences, which manifest in reduced rainfall and increased drought waves.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Al-Fahdawi, A. H. A., & Satam, A. T. M. (2022, October). A study of the water reality of managing the Euphrates River in Anbar Governorate in light of the growing water demand for the period (2020-2040). In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2400, No. 1). AIP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0125471

Al-Timimi, Y. K., Al-Lami, A. M., Basheer, F. S., & Awad, A. Y. (2024). Impacts of climate change on thermal bioclimatic indices over Iraq. Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 55(2), 744-756. https://doi.org/10.36103/J93nst49

Al-Jibure, H., & Al-Basrawi, N. (2014). Hydrogeology, geology of the Iraqi Western Desert. Special Issue, 125-144.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Karmesha, N. (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature and precipitation using the Mann-Kendall trend test: A case study to assess climate change on select states in the northeastern United States (Master’s thesis). Pennsylvania State University.

Mutar, Z. F., & Ramel, K. A. (2023). Sustainable planning for investing in natural resources in the Jazeera region in Al-Anbar Governorate. Dirasat: Human and Social Sciences, 50(6), 185–201.

Satam, A. T. M., Aldulaimi, A. M. K., & Mushref, Z. J. (2022, October). Assessment of the water environment of the Euphrates River in the district of Fallujah. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2400, No. 1). AIP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0112622

Tian, W., Liu, X., Wang, K., Bai, P., Liu, C., & Liang, X. (2022). Estimation of global reservoir evaporation losses. Journal of Hydrology, 120, 607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127524

Muslih, K. D., & Błażejczyk, K. (2017). The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 130, 583–596.