The Future of Afghanistan after The US Withdrawal and The Failure to Rebuild the State in light of Regional and International Tensions (2001-2021)

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims at highlighting the nature of the American failure to rebuild the Afghan state and establish a political system according to the Western model after twenty years of occupation، and how this led to the return of the Taliban movement to power in Afghanistan.

Methods: The study employed the historical method, the descriptive-analytical method, the analytical method, and the inductive-probabilistic method to present scenarios of political developments in Afghanistan and its future.

Results: The study proved the validity of its hypothesis that there is a correlation between the failure to rebuild states and the attempt to impose a Western political model on them by military force without taking into account the cultural, religious, historical, and national specificities and traditions that govern the lives of the peoples of these countries. The study concluded that the regional and international tensions in Afghanistan will negatively affect the stability of the political and security situation.

Conclusion: The study concluded that the political and security instability must continue in Afghanistan due to the nature of Afghan society and its ethnic, religious and sectarian components and the presence of active terrorist organizations، as well as the conflict of international and regional interests in Afghanistan. The study recommended the adoption of a consensual pattern to rebuild Afghanistan and the formation of a broad government representing all components of Afghan society.