Prediction Future Urban Growth and its Impact on the Land Use Using Urban Simulation Models  (Greater Irbid Municipality Case Study)

ريم الخاروف; قاسم دويكات; أسيل الدبيسي

doi:10.35516/hum.v49i1.1663

المؤلفون

ريم الخاروف جامعة اليرموك
قاسم دويكات جامعة اليرموك
أسيل الدبيسي جامعة اليرموك

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v49i1.1663

الكلمات المفتاحية:

التنبؤ، النمو الحضري، الأتمتة الخلوية، نماذج المحاكاة الحضرية، بلدية إربد الكبرى

الملخص

هدفت الدراسة إلى التنبؤ بالنمو الحضري، وأثره في استعمال الأراضي الزراعية والأراضي الفضاء في بلدية إربد الكبرى. واعتمدت على نموذج المحاكاه الحضرية، والأتمتة الخلوية LandUse Sim لتحقيق ذلك. وقد تمت تجربة النموذج في سيناريوهين، افترض أولها: السماح بتغير صفة الاستعمال من زراعي إلى حضري، ورأى الثاني: منع تغيير صفة الاستعمال من زراعي إلى حضري. وقد توصلت الدراسة إلى تزايد مساحة الاستعمال الحضري في السيناريو الأول إلى 10.7%. أما في السيناريو الثاني فقد زادت مساحة الأراضي الحضرية إلى 7.5% من مساحة بلدية إربد الكبرى بين عامي 2018-2028. وأوصتالدراسة بتطبيق قوانين تخطيطية مشددة تمنع من النمو الحضري على حساب الأراضي الزراعية؛ وذلك للحفاظ على المقدرات الزراعية للمنطقة.

التنزيلات

بيانات التنزيل غير متوفرة بعد.

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