The Impact of Political Stability on Foreign Reserves

فاتن  مفضي; أحمد  ملاوي

doi:10.35516/hum.v49i6:.4009

المؤلفون

فاتن مفضي جامعة اليرموك، الأردن
أحمد ملاوي جامعة اليرموك، الأردن

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v49i6:.4009

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الاستقرار السياسي، الاحتياطيات الأجنبية، الأردن

الملخص

هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى استقصاء أثر الاستقرار السياسي في الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في الأردن خلال الفترة (1996-2017)، ولتحقيق ذلك جرى استخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي لفترات التباطؤ الموزعة ((ARDL. وأظهرت نتائج الدراسة في المدى الطويل أن الاستقرار السياسي يؤثر إيجابيًا في الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في الأردن؛ حيث إن زيادة الاستقرار السياسي بوحدة واحدة يؤدي إلى زيادة الاحتياطيات الأجنبية بنسبة %1.148،أما بالنسبة للعلاقة في المدى القصير، فقد وجد بأن أثر الاستقرار السياسي في الاحتياطيات الأجنبية إيجابيًا أيضًا؛ حيث إن زيادة الاستقرار السياسي بوحدة واحدة يؤدي إلى زيادة الاحتياطيات الأجنبية بنسبة 0.498%.

التنزيلات

بيانات التنزيل غير متوفرة بعد.

المراجع

Achille, A. Cidrec, D. and Duru, U. (2013). Holding Excess Foreign Reserves versus Infrastructure Finance: What Should Africa Do?, Africa Development Bank Group, Working Paper, No.178.

Akpan, A. (2016). Foreign Reserves Accumulation and Macroeconomic Environment: The Nigerian Experience (2004-2014), International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 8(1), ISSN: 1309-8055.

Ali, A. Shukui, T. Selvarathnam, S. Xiaolin, X. and Saboor, A. (2008). Political Stability and Balance of Payment: An Empirical Study in Asia, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5 (9), PP. 1149-1157.

Al-Jabori, Hussin (2012), Measuring the Impact of FDI on Some Macroeconomic Variables in Developing Countries: The Case of India, Journal of Karkuk University for Administrative and Economic Sciences, Karkuk Univerity, Iraq, 2(1)

Al-Judeh, Huda & Malawi, Ahmad (2018), The Impact of External Debt on Foreign Reserves in Jordan: Econometrical Study (1980-2013), Journal of Al-Husin Ben Talal University for Studies, Ma'an, Jordan, 4(2), 420-448

Al-Khresha, Naser (2017), Political Development and Its Impact on Polititability in Jordan 1999-2017, Unpublished Master Thesis, Middle East University, Jordan

Allawneh, Mustafa (2015), The Impact of Human Development on Economic Growth in Jordan, Unpublished Master thesis, Department of Economics, Yarmouk University, Jordan

Al-Momani, Mohammad (2019),The Impact of Foreign Indirect Investment in Amman Stock Exchange on Foreign Reserves in Jordan, Unpublished Master Thesis, Department of Economicsm Yarmouk University, Jordan

Al-Otum, Ahmad (2013), The Concept of Political Development, Arab Institute for Research and Studies, Egypt.

Bani Hammad, Aretability in Jordan, AlMaqar Newspaper, Website https://maqar.com/archives/294591.

Bonizzi, D and Toporowski, H (2016). Developing and Emerging Countries as Finance Providers: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Direct Investment to the European Union, Working Paper Series, FESSUD.

Engle A. and Granger C. (1987). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometric a, 22, 117-129.

Gosselin, A. and Parent, W. and Nicholas, R. (2013).An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia, Bank of Canada, WP.

Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometrics.Fourth Edition, McGraw Hill, Boston, USA.

IMF.(2009). Balance of Payment and International Investment Position, Sixth Edition.

Johansen S. and Juselius K. (1990).Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration – with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2(52), 169-210.

John, Belis & Steive, Smith (2004), Globalizing pf International Politics, Al-Khaleej Center for reserach, Jeddah, KSA, PP 266-267

Khreewish, Husni (1999), Investment and Finance between Theory and Application, Dar Zahran, Amman, Jordan

Mahfooz, Wesam (2016), Hobbies, Cultural, Political Expressing in Al-Mukhaim, Case of Mihaim Dheesh, Unpublished Master thesis, Beirzit University, Palestine.

Mamingi, N. and Martin, K. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Developing Countries: evidence from the countries of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, CEPAL Review, No. 124, PP. 80-98.

Mohammed, N. (2012). The Effects of Foreign Investment in the Arabic Local Investment Future - An Analytical Measurement Study for Some of the Arabic Gulf States for the Period from 1992-2010, Master thesis, Financial Department, Clements University.

Nazeer, A. and Masih, M. (2017). Impact of Political Instability on Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1(1), 1-15.

Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., and Shin, R. (2001).Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.

Shahabad, R. (2014). The Impact of Political Stability on Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis, unpublished Master Thesis, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, North Cyprus.

Suliman, Heba & Malawi, Ahmad Ibrahim (2017), The Impact of the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment on Foreign Reserves in Jordan: Econometrical Study (1980-2015), Journal of Hebron University for Research, Hebron University, Palestine, 12, (2), 152-171

The Global Economy (2020). Political Stability. [On-Line] Available. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/ .

The World Bank.(2002). World Development Indicators, Washington, D.C.

The World Bank.(2020). Statistical Database. [Available On-line].https://data.albankaldawli.org/.

Trading Economic, (2020). Jordan Foreign Exchange Reserves. [On-line] Available https://tradingeconomics.com/.

World Bank (2019), Annual Reports

World Bank (2020), Website: https://data.alankaldawli.oorg