Estimating Long-term Trends in Elements and Some Phenomena of Iraq's Climate

Zeyad Frayeh Mutar; Natheer  Sbar Hamad

doi:10.35516/hum.v51i5.10018

Authors

Zeyad Frayeh Mutar Department of Geography, College of Arts, University Of Anbar, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1440-815X
Natheer Sbar Hamad Department of Geography, College of Education for Humanities, University Of Anbar, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1457-9570

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v51i5.10018

Keywords:

Climate Change, Elements, Statistical Significance of the Change, Estimation Trends.

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to assess the changes and trends in the elements and phenomena of Iraq's climate and analyze the trends in each climatic element in light of global climate change caused by global warming. Iraq is among the countries affected by climate changes, and this research highlights the impact of these changes on the variation and direction of each climatic element in Iraq.

Methods: The researcher employed quantitative and statistical methods to study climate and hydrological changes, utilizing the Mann-Kendall trend test to achieve the desired results. This involved collecting climate data from seven meteorological stations across Iraq over fifty years (1972-2022). The Mann-Kendall test is regarded as one of the best tests for determining the trend of climatic elements.

Results: The study found a downward trend in solar radiation, with the highest recorded value at -0.29 in Sulaymaniyah. It observed a significant temperature increase, particularly starting in the 1990s, with changes of 3.75°C for minimum and 3.85°C for maximum temperatures. Wind speeds decreased at most stations, and rainfall declined in many areas. The study also noted an increase in the intensity and frequency of dust phenomena in Iraq.

Conclusions: Climate change represents one of the most significant challenges facing the world today, characterized by rising emissions from human activities, resulting in increased temperatures and reduced rainfall, leading to drought. Therefore, we recommend intensifying global and regional efforts to reduce emissions to control the escalating rise in temperatures.

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