Modeling (simulation) of Urban Growth in Urban Abha until 2030 Using CA-Markov Model

Abstract

Urban growth models are one of the latest modern technologies that are effective in predicting future urban growth and that help planners, and decision-makers in trying to find possible solutions to overcome the problems of expected urban expansion.

 Objectives: The study sought to model (simulate) urban growth in urban Abha until 2030 AD. With the aim of producing a digital map of the urban bloc. Through which, the area of ​​the expected urban block can be calculated. Using a built-in Markov model, Based on urban growth maps for the period (1984-2002 AD).

Methods:  This study followed a spatial analysis approach to simulate urban growth by classifying land uses for two areas: (built-up free of and urbanization) and the use of the (CA-Markov) model to simulate urban growth, and evaluate the accuracy of classification using the Idrisi Selva program.

Results: The research finds that the land is expected to grow in urban Abha until the year 2030 (120.6 km2) which is 12.8% of the total area of 945.7 km2, which is three times the annual increase Between the years (1984-2020), which covers (3.9) km2.

Conclusion: making the total inhabited area (300.25) km2 forming 31.8% of the total urban area of ​​Abha. The study suggests the need to develop plans for the expected urban growth to reduce its implications